Physics reveals and explains patterns in conflict casualties

Europhysics Letters

Why humans fight has no easy answer. However, understanding better how humans fight could inform future humanitarian aid planning and insight into hidden shifts for peace efforts. Here we show that an empirically-grounded physics theory of fighter dynamics — which is a generalization of the well-known physics of polymer assembly — can explain casualty patterns observed across decades of violence in a current conflict hotspot. It also suggests the possibility of future ‘super-shock’ surprise attacks that are even more lethal than have already been seen. These insights from physics open the door to new policy discussions surrounding humanitarian aid and peace efforts that account mechanistically for human violence across scales.

Frank Yingjie Huo, Dylan Restrepo, Pedro Manrique, Gordon Woo, Neil Johnson

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“Big Sunscreen”: When Misinformation Fuels Extremist Conspiracy Theories

Beauty Matter

A broad spectrum of “sunscreen truthers” on platforms like TikTok, Instagram, and Facebook have peddled the trope that sunscreen causes cancer for at least the last decade. These types of conspiracy theories have reached a fever pitch on social media since the pandemic. From vegan anti-vaxxers and bro-biohackers to MAHA and QAnon supporters, they all have two things in common: a case of chemophobia and a belief that sunscreen is the enemy.

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Influence of Twitter social network graph topologies on traditional and meme stocks during the 2021 GameStop short squeeze

NPJ Complexity

In early 2021, groups of Reddit and Twitter users collaborated to raise the price of GameStop stock from $20 to $400 in a matter of days. The heavy influence of social media activity on the rise of GameStop prices can be contrasted with the muted social media influence on other, more traditional stocks. While traditional stocks are modeled quite successfully by current methods, such methods break down when used to model these so-called meme stocks. Our project analyzes the graph topology of retweet graphs built from GameStop-related tweets and other meme stocks to find that the clustering coefficient and network diameter of a retweet graph can be used to decrease the mean absolute error of meme stock trading volume predictions by as much as 46% over the control group during the first 70 trading days of 2021.

Daniel Verdear, Neil Johnson, Stefan Wuchty

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Physics Breakthrough Reveals Why AI Systems Can Suddenly Turn On You

NeuroEdge

Researchers at George Washington University have developed a groundbreaking mathematical formula that predicts exactly when artificial intelligence systems like ChatGPT will suddenly shift from helpful to harmful responses – a phenomenon they’ve dubbed the “Jekyll-and-Hyde tipping point.” The new research may finally answer why AI sometimes abruptly goes off the rails.

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AI Jekyll-Hyde Tipping Point Formula

Neural Intel Podcast

This academic paper introduces a novel mathematical formula that precisely predicts when a large language model (LLM) might suddenly shift from producing beneficial output to generating incorrect or harmful content, referred to as a “Jekyll-and-Hyde” tipping point. The authors attribute this change to the AI’s attention mechanism, specifically how thinly its attention spreads across a growing response. They argue that this tipping point is predetermined by the AI’s initial training and the user’s prompt, and can be influenced by altering these factors. Notably, the study concludes that politeness in user prompts has no significant impact on whether or when this behavioral shift occurs. The research provides a foundation for potentially predicting and mitigating such undesirable AI behavior.