September 2024, DOD Basic Research Forum
Abstract: Human conflict will always appear chaotic and serve up unknown unknowns. But this talk shows how combining simple mechanistic representations of how fighters fight with state-of-the-art data, provides new insight into future unknown unknowns – and quantitative predictions. Examples include the Israel-Palestine region, Russia-Ukraine and also future ‘Total War’ scenarios in which cyber-terrorism and malicious AI use will play a role. The predictions range from future casualties to unexpected technological advancements by an adversary; new and unanticipated tactics such as cyberattacks or biological warfare; sudden alliances or geopolitical shifts that alter the balance of power; and insurgencies or terrorist attacks in areas or by groups not previously considered a threat. This empirically-grounded mechanistic perspective on future warfare, threats, and total surprises, can inform future interventions, hidden shifts and casualty risk.