Recent Talks

September 2024, DOD Basic Research Forum

Abstract: Human conflict will always appear chaotic and serve up unknown unknowns.  But this talk shows how combining simple mechanistic representations of how fighters fight with state-of-the-art data, provides new insight into future unknown unknowns – and quantitative predictions. Examples include the Israel-Palestine region, Russia-Ukraine and also future ‘Total War’ scenarios in which cyber-terrorism and malicious AI use will play a role. The predictions range from future casualties to unexpected technological advancements by an adversary; new and unanticipated tactics such as cyberattacks or biological warfare; sudden alliances or geopolitical shifts that alter the balance of power; and insurgencies or terrorist attacks in areas or by groups not previously considered a threat. This empirically-grounded mechanistic perspective on future warfare, threats, and total surprises, can inform future interventions, hidden shifts and casualty risk.

Virtual panel talk at Navigating Infodemics and Building Trust during Public Health Emergencies, April 2023, National Academy of Sciences: https://nap.nationalacademies.org/resource/27188/interactive/#section5

Research presentation at the Trust & Safety Research Conference, September 2022, Stanford University: https://www.tsresearchconference.org/

Keynote discussion panel at International Conference on Emerging Infectious Diseases (ICEID 2022) August 2022, Atlanta, GA: https://www.iceid.org/

Keynote talk at the International Workshop on Cyber Social Threats (CySoc) June 2022, Atlanta, GA: https://cysoc2022.github.io/