Ongoing Research

Calls are escalating for social media platforms to do more to mitigate extreme online communities whose views can lead to real-world harms, e.g., mis/disinformation and distrust that increased Covid-19 fatalities, and now extend to monkeypox, unsafe baby formula alternatives, cancer, abortions, and climate change; white replacement that inspired the 2022 Buffalo shooter and will likely inspire others; anger that threatens elections, e.g., 2021 U.S. Capitol attack; notions of male supremacy that encourage abuse of women; anti-Semitism, anti-LGBQT hate and QAnon conspiracies. But should ‘doing more’ mean doing more of the same, or something different? If so, what? Here we start by showing why platforms doing more of the same will not solve the problem. Specifically, our analysis of nearly 100 million Facebook users entangled over vaccines and now Covid and beyond, shows that the extreme communities’ ecology has a hidden resilience to Facebook’s removal interventions; that Facebook’s messaging interventions are missing key audience sectors and getting ridiculed; that a key piece of these online extremes’ narratives is being mislabeled as incorrect science; and that the threat of censorship is inciting the creation of parallel presences on other platforms with potentially broader audiences. We then demonstrate empirically a new solution that can soften online extremes organically without having to censor or remove communities or their content, or check or correct facts, or promote any preventative messaging, or seek a consensus. This solution can be automated at scale across social media platforms quickly and with minimal cost.

Elvira Maria Restrepo, Martin Moreno, Lucia Illari, Neil F. Johnson

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We present a minimal yet empirically-grounded theory for the spread of online harms (e.g. misinformation, hate) across current multi-platform social media and future Metaverses. New physics emerges from the interplay between the intrinsic heterogeneity among online communities and platforms, their clustering dynamics generated through user-created links and sudden moderator shutdowns, and the contagion process. The theory provides an online `R-nought’ criterion to prevent system-wide spreading; it predicts re-entrant spreading phases; it establishes the level of digital vaccination required for online herd immunity; and it can be applied at multiple scales.

Chen Xu, Pak Ming Hui, Om K. Jha, Chenkai Xia, Neil F. Johnson

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A better understanding of how support evolves online for undesirable behaviors such as extremism and hate, could help mitigate future harms. Here we show how the highly irregular growth curves of groups supporting two high-profile extremism movements, can be accurately described if we generalize existing gelation models to account for the facts that the number of potential recruits is time-dependent and humans are heterogeneous. This leads to a novel generalized Burgers equation that describes these groups’ temporal evolution, and predicts a critical influx rate for potential recruits beyond which such groups will not form. Our findings offer a new approach to managing undesirable groups online — and more broadly, managing the sudden appearance and growth of large macroscopic aggregates in a complex system — by manipulating their onset and engineering their growth curves.

Pedro D. Manrique, Sara El Oud, Neil F. Johnson

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